Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.801577 2.388223 3.185841 4.378531 6.169017e+00 8.847369e+00 1.334304e+01
2024-12-22 1.266141 1.918892 2.976565 4.923844 8.693999e+00 1.636920e+01 3.552764e+01
2024-12-29 0.955909 1.620577 2.874797 5.678850 1.271417e+01 3.306327e+01 1.195552e+02
2025-01-05 0.734547 1.370339 2.742801 6.428543 1.851159e+01 7.128637e+01 5.618405e+02
2025-01-12 0.536041 1.073688 2.360046 6.368146 2.300684e+01 1.334118e+02 3.161980e+03
2025-01-19 0.391801 0.829497 1.966336 5.977936 2.658761e+01 2.379242e+02 3.325654e+04
2025-01-26 0.313017 0.703012 1.810741 6.315941 3.643665e+01 6.228867e+02 2.750167e+08
2025-02-02 0.267412 0.639673 1.805778 7.392710 5.965325e+01 3.023552e+03 NaN
2025-02-09 0.235413 0.599247 1.857720 9.046805 1.101260e+02 4.384933e+04 NaN
2025-02-16 0.199938 0.533167 1.776736 9.967381 1.774493e+02 4.216197e+06 NaN
2025-02-23 0.164594 0.452804 1.585545 9.840762 2.368965e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 0.134505 0.378255 1.372389 9.178069 2.814143e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 0.117485 0.343927 1.333046 10.295814 5.318475e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.102640 0.311321 1.280949 11.339292 1.044096e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.091386 0.287475 1.259417 12.953880 2.563652e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.081394 0.264452 1.226295 14.544403 7.136708e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.069644 0.229850 1.096084 13.978675 1.201936e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.059088 0.196716 0.952893 12.665938 1.560883e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.052712 0.179166 0.901173 13.260243 4.685687e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.048930 0.171449 0.912190 15.718984 6.752185e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.046185 0.167341 0.948341 19.704023 2.566708e+11 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.042369 0.156822 0.925863 21.847302 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.037857 0.141457 0.850673 21.290628 NaN NaN NaN